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Empirical validation of an agent-based model of wood markets in Switzerland.

Author
Abstract
:

We present an agent-based model of wood markets and show our efforts to validate this model using empirical data from different sources, including interviews, workshops, experiments, and official statistics. Own surveys closed gaps where data was not available. Our approach to model validation used a variety of techniques, including the replication of historical production amounts, prices, and survey results, as well as a historical case study of a large sawmill entering the market and becoming insolvent only a few years later. Validating the model using this case provided additional insights, showing how the model can be used to simulate scenarios of resource availability and resource allocation. We conclude that the outcome of the rigorous validation qualifies the model to simulate scenarios concerning resource availability and allocation in our study region.

Year of Publication
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0
Journal
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PloS one
Volume
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13
Issue
:
1
Number of Pages
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e0190605
Date Published
:
2018
URL
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http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190605
DOI
:
10.1371/journal.pone.0190605
Short Title
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PLoS One
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